A comparison of two business cycle dating methods Boston free adult phone chat

22-Sep-2017 17:07

Finally, based on the results of the different methods, a consensus business cycle chronology for the German economy is suggested.

I gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from Klaus Wälde and two anonymous referees.

The regressors are monthly series from the Business Cycle Indicators database of the Conference Board.

Dividing the sample period into a subset for model initialization (1959∶9–1970∶12) and a subset for testing (1971∶1–2003∶12) yields a chronology that is nearly identical to that established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

However, the recognition lag is less than four months, in contrast to an average of more than eleven months for the official chronology.

Altissimo F, A Bassanetti, R Cristadoro, M Forni, M Lippi, M Hallin, L Reichlin and G Veronese (2001), ‘Euro COIN: a real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle’, Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No 3108.

Bry, G., Boschan, C., (1971), Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, New York, NBER. Burnside, C., (1998), "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts: A Comment". Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 4th Quarter, pp.

Business-Cycle Regimes", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 17, 313-323. C., (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, New York, NBER. Christiano, L., Fitzgerald, T., (1998), "The Business Cycle: It's still a Puzzle". "Predicting Turning Points, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolois Research Department Staff Report No.

These fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend, and typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth, and periods of relative stagnation or decline (a contraction or recession).

Cogley, T., (2001), "Alternative de�nitions of the business cycle and their implications for business cycle models: A reply to Torben Mark Pederson", Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 25 pp 1103-1107.

Krolzig (2000), "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing Based on Markov Switching Autoregres sions", (mimeo, University of Warwick).

One needs to take this into account when using US based research on detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points.

King (1999), "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series", Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, pp.

Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic product.